Explaining Policy Success Using the Multiple Streams Framework: Political Success Despite Programmatic Failure of the Solar Energy Policy in Gujarat, India

Although many scholars have studied policy success and failure, the relationship of these phenomena to process—essential for an explanatory or anticipatory analysis—remains unclear. I address this gap by linking heuristic with multiple streams framework (MSF) developing hypotheses explain outcomes. apply conceptualization case solar energy in Gujarat, India combining a qualitative assessment process trace making. The findings show that conflicted programmatic failure resulted largely from top-down push without problem. This push, nevertheless, led political was sustained recoupling problems politics through agenda denial, blame avoidance, credit claiming. conclude implications research on evaluation, MSF, studies, as well governance sustainable transition. Huda, Juhi. 2020. “Sources Evidence Risks Benefits Agricultural Biotechnology Policy India: Exploring Links Setting Plot Narratives.” Politics & 49 (1): 205-247. https://doi.org.10.1111/polp.12391 Peterson, Holly L., Mark K. McBeth, Michael D. Jones. “Policy Process Theory Rural Studies: Navigating Context Generalization Policy.” 48 (4): 576-617. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12366 Rawat, Pragati, John Charles Morris. 2016. “Kingdon's ‘Streams’ Model at Thirty: Still Relevant 21st Century? 44 608-638. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12168 Aunque muchos académicos han estudiado el éxito y fracaso de las políticas, la relación estos fenómenos con proceso políticas—esencial para un análisis explicativo o anticipatorio—sigue sin estar clara. Abordo esta brecha vinculando heurística del políticas marco múltiples flujos desarrollando hipótesis explicar los resultados. Aplico conceptualización al caso política energía en India, combinando una evaluación cualitativa rastro formulación políticas. Los hallazgos muestran que conflictivo programático se debieron gran parte impulso arriba hacia abajo por problemas. Este impulso, embargo, condujo político fue sostenido reacoplamiento problema través negación agenda, evasión culpas reclamo crédito. Concluyo implicaciones investigación sobre MSF estudios así como gobernanza transición energética sostenible. 儘管許多學者研究了政策的成敗，但這些現象與政策過程之間的關係（對於解釋性或預期性分析必不可少）仍然不清楚。我通過將政策成功啟發式方法與多流框架（MSF）聯繫起來，並提出假設來解釋結果，從而解決了這一差距。通過將定性政策評估與政策制定過程相結合，我將這種概念化應用於印度古吉拉特邦的太陽能政策。研究結果表明，衝突的流程成功和程序失敗主要是由於自上而下地推動一項沒有問題的政策而導致的。但是，這種推動導致了政治上的成功，通過拒絕議程，避免怪罪和主張信用來重新解決問題和政治，從而獲得了政治上的成功。最後，我對政策評估，無國界醫生（MSF）和政策研究以及可持續能源轉型的治理進行了研究。 Why how policies succeed fail are important questions practitioners, analysts, alike received attention literature evaluation. While rationalist approach evaluation has emphasized objectivity identified several criteria effectiveness—such goal attainment, cost-effectiveness, fairness, legitimacy—the constructivist subjectivity appealed participatory, reflexive model (Huitema et al. 2011). A key reason disagreement is different types outcomes, which can all influence trajectories. Yet, usually either conflated evaluated isolation: achievement objectives (Vedung 2006), movement one stage next (Bovens 2010; Marsh McConnell 2010a, 2010b), repercussion 2001). In “middle-ground” synthesis, (2010, 351) defined successful if “it achieves goals proponents set out achieve attracts no criticism any significance and/or support virtually universal.” Further, he proposed multidimensional (PSH) assess performance along each dimension—process, program, politics—as continuum between failure. such useful conducting holistic understanding setting, decision making, implementation outcomes—necessary explaining (Astbury Leeuw Harmelink, Nilsson, Harmsen 2008)—is currently missing literature. Meanwhile, burgeoned theories parts thereof, including advocacy coalition (Sabatier 1988), (Kingdon 1995), feedback theory (Hall 1993; Skocpol 1992), punctuated equilibrium (Baumgartner Jones 1993). advancement process—especially during setting making—is explicit implicit domain work, almost branch systematically linked making effectiveness (Baumgartner, Jones, Mortensen 2018; Herweg, Zahariadis, Zohlnhöfer Jenkins-Smith 2018). limited exception wherein Zahariadis Exadaktylos (2016) Fowler (2019) found stream characteristics interactions explain—at least, part—process success, respectively. study, build insight connect PSH MSF. appropriate endeavor because its emphasis ambiguity explains (and, more broadly, change) result interaction structure, agency, chance environments involving ways thinking concerning problem promoting solution. closely related interpretive nature gray areas success. Specifically, posit influenced among problems, policies, politics: while loose coupling therefore, weak interaction) increases likelihood tight develop three dimensions policy— Process, Program, Politics—based dyadic interactions. By manner, also broaden notion realization toward view India. 2009, Gujarat became first state adopt separate energy. From theoretical perspective, relevant it engendered mixed outcomes process, over time (Sareen Kale Thakkar 2013b; Yenneti Day 2015), thereby permitting within-case analysis will be reducing greenhouse gas emissions accelerating transition (Breyer Creutzig 2017). To illustrate, alone target 175 GW renewable capacity 2022 450 2030, 60 percent likely met (The Economic Times 2020). An successes failures area can, enable lesson-drawing enhance future. article structured following manner. First, analysis. Subsequently, methods described. then present study. Finally, discuss practice often associated objectives, outcomes—such impact public participation implication—that generally not captured stated goals. Moreover, effects lie “gray areas” their matter only fact but interpretation 't Hart 1996). multidimensional, multiperspective been studies. Here, conceived having dimensions: Program (2010) argued dimension spectrum failure—success, resilient precarious failure—and them such. provides objective basis being transparent degree heuristic, refers way defined, alternatives specified, decisions made, programs implemented (Marsh 2010a). is, determined design decision-making delivery (Compton 2019a; Luetjens, Mintrom, 2019; Peters based extent criteria: symbolizing innovation,11 polycentric environment, diffusion indicator innovation influence. building policy, conferring legitimacy executing line limiting opposition (McConnell 2010). program operational aspect expected promote desired societal might realized implementation, depends whether “right” addressed effective (Peters elements include meeting criteria, creating benefits constituency, realizing intended consequences, minimizing As vary—for example, economic efficiency budgeting reform secrecy national security initiative—the constitute differ those another acknowledgment Even “token” policy—that little effect—can yield rich dividend construed “design space” where formulated determine maker's reputation (re-)electability, sustenance values government, ability control anticipate inform ex ante rather than post, however, must go beyond falls short. although process—such actors involved activities, compliance—influence hardly systematized Bali, Capano, Ramesh analytical, operational, itself endogenous process. Compton (2019b) gone further incorporating feedback—that effect dynamics t + n (and n)—but they rigorously into conceptualization. Second, varies time. Building Bovens (1996), (2019a) incorporated temporality However, specification inaccurate politics—is temporal. Therefore, why programmatic, vary essential examining anticipating temporal variation issues adaptation garbage organizational choice (Cohen, March, Olsen 1972), Kingdon (1995) federal level United States. framework, viewed interplay relatively independent streams: problem, politics. represents elite perceptions social conditions indicators, focusing events, previous policies. depicts evolution undergo “mutations” “recombinations” “policy primeval soup” selection technical feasibility, financial viability, value acceptability. third stream, politics, interest group party ideologies, legislative administrative system, mood. (1995, 122) when entrepreneurs (actors who were willing “invest resources—time, energy, reputation, sometimes money hope future return”) exploited windows opportunity “couple” streams. since used examine adoption (Exworthy Powell 2004; Ridde 2009; 2003). (1992) had treated continuous, Huß, (2015) hypothesized need window entrepreneurship adoption, especially separation power executive legislature. Similarly, Exworthy (2004) (2020) implementation. indicates one-time activity may coupled decoupled times recurrent decoupling provided recent scholarship. Dolan (2021, 170) “a loosely connected assemblage… [whose] components easily repackaged reconfigured” and, absent, partial, complete (see 1995). Based idea, 2021 differentiated partial couplings: (1) Type 1 significant feasible alternative, lack will; (2) 2 alternative adequate will, absence problem; (3) 3 alternative. mapping coupling) course type coupling, turn, believed predicated window. surfing consequential (Boscarino challenge find solution quickly before shut again. contrast, lead doctrinal matching predetermined Or, commissioning, whereby solution—with entrepreneur advocating it—is selected already (Ackrill Kay both (Herweg, initial condition subsequent limited, two studies corroborate strategies couple affect success). shown subsection, and—using typology (2021)—relate Hypothesis1a: least partially coupled, i.e., under coupling. Hypothesis 1b: coupling—in coupled—is 2a: Programmatic 2b: 3a: Political coupled; 3b: schematic Figure 1, developed above summarized Table 1. Basic Representation Success within Multiple Streams Framework Notes: entrepreneurship, opportunity, depicted figure ease visualization. See text information. January Solar Power 2009. overarching aims included addressing climate change; livelihoods, barren wasteland areas; ensuring development (Government 2009). aimed create investment state, foster technological development, encourage local manufacturing, environmental consciousness citizens. Before, during, government made announcements took various designs deployment (Yenneti 2016). Throughout article, refer collectively temporally dimensionally. moved swiftly implementation: 500 MW was, fact, years ahead schedule 2012. then, scaled up ambition revised 3,000 2014 (Indo-Asian News Service 2011; NBM CW addition petered 2013-18, commissioned less 800 (by comparison, rest increased 400 22,000 MW). scan presents picture despite affordability, distributional equity, procedural justice, spatial justice 2015; Yenneti, Day, Golubchikov makes what data collected diverse sources. author conducted 27 semistructured, interviews five other states elicit information specifically (Appendix: Tables A1 A2). help uncover (Paquet bias “those adept playing media” self-serving narrative (Meijerink Huitema 2010, 4). limitation use Approximately 2,000 news reports retrieved using queries Lexis Academic database: AND (solar policy), March 14, ((solar energy) OR power)), April 4, addition, 270 publications search (India policy) ISI Web Science database—conducted 2019—to incorporate secondary Also, documents May 2019 websites institutions making—identified institutional mapping—to obtain background sector, understand design, identify material pertinent Appendix: A3). investigated tracing. tracing small-n, science method analyzing change causation. It involves reconstruction chain events leading cause outcome (Morgan Using this, question tested “within-case” comparing expectations observable implications. conduct analysis, extracted pertaining sources mentioned above. Then, arranged sequence categorized represented primarily.22 available resources, examined intercoder reliability testing conducted. description indicators feedback, stream; activities activity, mood stream. Following context agency event reconstruct described earlier (Table 2). analyze fulfillment criterion after, “mid-term” around 2012 Third, complemented “end-term” after 2014. Fourth, mid-term end-term compared investigate analyzed. initially dimension: symbolized emulated country, broad coalition, transparent. subsequently, faced some bureaucracy. meanwhile, unsuccessful: seemingly satisfied durable, envisaged fully unintended consequences emerged, grew Despite politically unqualified success: enhanced Mr. Modi reinforced government. Furthermore, “success” accepted across retained agenda. sections, describe detail Around 2007, Narendra reelected chief minister technologies becoming cheaper gaining worldwide. businesses keen enter considered top market (Denyer 2012).33 trade mission new Obama administration (Hindustan 2009) second States planned visit year. At same time, international pressure commit action threat sanctions otherwise (M2 PressWire Rajasthan attractive “Saudi Arabia energy” thermal seen promising steep decline price photovoltaic (PV) latter competitive (Deshmukh, Gambhir, Sant PV would continue decline, technology “grid parity” decade (Dion Global Solutions Limited election shifting balance interests opened Soon his electoral victory, possibility harnessing (U.S. Fed 2007). After visits numerous delegations subject—including representatives Clinton Foundation—Mr. discussed bureaucracy (M. Jhala, personal communication, July 23, resistant idea recommended waiting grid parity, insisted propose ideas leveraging energy—at “whatever cost” (Electricity regulation expert, legislature (Mahurkar 2003), prevailed formulation Thus, aligned doctrinally, nodal energy—headed bureaucracy—was given responsibility designing country (Senior official, 26, effort, indirect electricity regulatory commission. commission released discussion paper tariff played role investor-friendly principle, chairman previously worked office minister. result, remained intact formulation. commitment leadership, polysemic power, creation policy. China announced plan 1,000 park 2010), formalized collaboration Climate Initiative (CCI) own (Khanna With CCI Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Shah implementing grid-scale created specifications Charanka specialist, coordination bureaucracy, agencies feasibility viability drew coalition. (United surfaced due large land footprint